President Trump takes office as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces a critical crossroads. The war in Sudan will span into its second US administration and Gaza’s ceasefire has just begun, with worrying indications that it may soon collapse. Lebanon, in the midst of a delicate ceasefire with Israel, faces a difficult political transition following the end of a two-year presidential vacuum. Meanwhile in Syria, with the fall of the Assad regime, the country is embarking on its own political transition under the leadership of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a US-designated terrorist organization. In tandem, Syrians are grappling with the enormous challenges of rebuilding their country following 14 years of war which will require massive reconstruction and economic recovery support.
The United States has an important role to play in mediating an end to these conflicts and supporting political transitions. It is the largest supplier of weapons to Israel, and has brokered ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza. It also maintains punishing sectoral sanctions in Syria. As for Sudan, it has led multiple rounds of peace negotiations all while a growing range of external actors continue to fuel the war through their support for the belligerents.
If the US fails to proactively play a constructive and cooperative role in confronting these challenges, it will find itself once again playing a reactive one to emergent crises
In its first six months in office, the Trump administration must urgently prioritize the MENA region in its foreign policy, work to immediately end the war in Sudan, uphold the ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon and back reconstruction efforts, and support an inclusive, democratic and durable transition in Syria. If the US fails to proactively play a constructive and cooperative role in confronting these challenges, it will find itself once again playing a reactive one to emergent crises.
End the war in Sudan
The war in Sudan cannot be on the backburner of the Trump administration’s foreign policy as it has been under President Joe Biden. The war, which has been characterized by the targeting of civilians, sexual violence, and other flagrant international humanitarian law violations, will enter its third year less than three months into Trump’s presidency. The situation in Sudan in 2025 is as dire as ever. The country faces the world’s largest humanitarian crisis: famine has spread to five areas of the country, 12 million people have been displaced, and nearly half the country relies on humanitarian aid. The incoming administration should continue the work of their Republican allies and their Democratic counterparts in Congress, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who urged a peaceful transfer of power to a civilian-led political authority in Sudan in 2019.
During his first months in office, President Trump should appoint a Special Presidential Envoy for Sudan who can convene new US-led peace talks between the belligerent parties, their external backers, and Sudanese civilians and civil society groups. Peace negotiations cannot simply emulate the Biden administration’s attempts in Riyadh, Manama, Cairo, and Geneva where both warring parties failed to show up. Rather, the Trump administration must use its leverage over US security partners like the UAE and Egypt to bring the belligerent parties to the negotiating table while ensuring negotiations include meaningful participation from Sudanese civilians and civil society, including women’s groups, Emergency Response Rooms, youth, and victim-led groups. Negotiations which sideline the Sudanese people in the country’s political transition, or only privilege the widely-criticized and RSF-aligned Taqadom with a seat at the table, run the risk of repeating past mistakes in negotiating political settlement between military leaders and their aligned groups without the consent and approval of the Sudanese people. A peace agreement in Sudan with less buy-in from all parties is inherently less durable and risks reproducing the conditions that led to this latest round of violence.
Sudan needs urgent behavioral change and accountability measures as well. The Biden administration’s determination that Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have committed a genocide in Darfur and sanctioning of its leader, Hemedti, alongside newer sanctions on Burhan, the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), create momentum for US leadership to end the war. These new sanctions on Hemedti and Burhan are a step in the right direction—they make the RSF increasingly toxic to its civilian allies in Sudan and lowers its support and standing in the international community. They also slow down regional and international attempts to side with SAF in Sudan’s political future—raising the costs of choosing a side at the expense of a peaceful and just political transition. This US leadership will be ineffective if it stops there. These measures are not separate from peace negotiations, rather they are intrinsic to bringing the belligerent actors to the table, evident in the RSF’s continued willingness to negotiate following the Biden administration’s sanctioning of Abdelrahim Hamdan Dagalo, Hemedti’s brother, in September 2023. Along with behavioral changes measures such as targeted sanctions, the US must support accountability measures such as the International Criminal Court’s investigations and the UN Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan, an independent fact-finding body which has documented violations by both SAF and the RSF which may amount to war crimes.
Without external support which provides resources for SAF and the RSF to fight, the war could come to an end
The war does not stop inside Sudan, and the Trump administration must urgently engage and hold to account its close security partners such as the UAE, which has armed the RSF in flagrant violation of the international arms embargo on Darfur, and Egypt, which advises the Sudanese Army and has worked to prevent international sanctions on SAF. Without external support which provides resources for SAF and the RSF to fight, the war could come to an end.
The landscape in Sudan is changing—the persistence in fighting has led to more actors, including Russia, Iran, and China, to enter the conflict, exploiting Sudan for its resources and further destabilizing the Horn of Africa. In addition to ending the immense human suffering in Sudan and giving the Sudanese people the opportunity to realize their own democratic future, bringing an end to the conflict is vital to US national security and denying US rivals a theater there.
Maintain the ceasefire in Lebanon and support reconstruction
The Trump administration will inherit an extremely delicate US-Lebanon policy, as the country transitions to a new president, US-backed army head Joseph Aoun, following a two-year vacuum, and a new prime minister, President of the International Court of Justice Nawaf Salam, less than two months after Israel’s war on the country which heavily damaged its civilian infrastructure, killing thousands, and displacing over a million people.
The ceasefire in Lebanon, whose enforcement mechanism is chaired by the US with French support, is fragile. Only six days after President Trump’s inauguration, the Israeli military is required to withdraw from southern Lebanon, but according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), Israeli forces remain in 60 southern Lebanese towns as of early January. There are also reports that the head of the ceasefire committee US General Jasper Jeffers had told Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati that the Israeli army’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon would be delayed and will go beyond the January 26 deadline. In the meantime, Israeli troops have continued to demolish homes and infrastructure and strike southern Lebanon and the Bekaa.
The Trump administration must use its leverage over Israel to stop the ceasefire violations and prevent any further attacks on Lebanon or wider war with Hezbollah
Along with Israeli troops still present in southern Lebanon, France, Lebanon, and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have all accused Israel of violating the ceasefire hundreds of times since the November deal, by violating Lebanese airspace, launching airstrikes, and even kidnapping beekeepers. Israel has also accused Hezbollah of violating the deal, as Israeli strikes have also killed Lebanese civilians. US officials have been witness to the Israeli violations as well; this month, while meeting with US General Jasper Jeffers, Lebanese Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri had his assistant open his office window so that the US official could hear an Israeli drone buzzing outside, in violation of the agreement. The Trump administration must use its leverage over Israel to stop the ceasefire violations and prevent any further attacks on Lebanon or wider war with Hezbollah.
Amidst the political transition in Syria and the ongoing war in Gaza, the US must work to keep Lebanon stable. Inherent to this stability, and to maintaining the ceasefire in Lebanon, will be the Trump administration’s support for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), who will require the funding, resources, training, and modernization to successfully deploy to south and east Lebanon and fill the security void which will be left if Hezbollah is to dismantle under the agreement.
In addition, the Trump administration must urgently prioritize the country’s reconstruction. Lebanon was already in a grave financial crisis leading up to the war. According to the World Bank, the costs of physical damages and economic loss caused by the war is $8.5 billion, and Israeli strikes on Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure caused at least $2.8 billion in housing damage as entire villages in the south have been demolished, and $124 million in agricultural damage. Funding will help the new president Joseph Aoun be effective in shepherding a political and economic transition while securing the confidence and support of the Lebanese population.
Days before the US presidential election, President Trump sent Lebanese Americans a letter vowing to bring peace to the country and to “stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon.” The ceasefire and election of a new Lebanese president positions President Trump to deliver on his promise.
Support a Syrian-led peaceful political transition in Syria
The incoming administration has an opportunity to help support and facilitate and orderly peaceful and inclusive transition in Syria led by Syrians. While HTS, the group that led the military campaign that culminated with Bashar Al Assad’s ouster, has a troubling history, including past links to Al Qaeda, there have been consistent indications from its leader, Ahmed Al Sharaa, that he wants to improve his and the group’s reputation while strengthening Syria’s external relations with Gulf and Western nations. Syria’s new rulers have taken some positive steps to assuage fears that they will govern Syria in a divisive or sectarian fashion and have warned against any acts of vigilantism or vengeful violence in an attempt to restore order in Syria and hold the country, with its diverse array of communities, together. While there is no guarantee that Syria’s new leadership will hold to this pattern, the Trump administration can lead America’s partners in doing what they can to encourage Sharaa and the new Syrian government to stay the course.
The first step to doing this is to surge humanitarian aid and reconstruction assistance and lift sectoral sanctions, which were put in place to cripple and bring down the Assad regime. The regime has fallen, and Syria needs to rebuild, provide economic opportunities for the existing Syrian population, and be able to welcome back Syrians who are choosing to return home. Some carve outs have been made through a temporary general license which allows some companies and financial institutions to temporarily do business and process transactions that were prohibited by sanctions. However, other transactions remain restricted and financial institutions will remain reluctant to facilitate transactions without more clarity from the United States government and its allies. The cost of navigating existing sanctions and exemptions as well as the risk of falling afoul of the web of confusing sanctions in place deters banks from facilitating permissible transactions, as it is easier to stay away from Syria.
The [Assad] regime has fallen, and Syria needs to rebuild, provide economic opportunities for the existing Syrian population, and be able to welcome back Syrians who are choosing to return home
The White House should work with Syria’s leaders and Syrian civil society, including victim-led groups, to establish clear benchmarks for the transition that will unlock additional support for Syria. These benchmarks should also be part of ongoing discussions about delisting HTS as a terrorist organization. Inclusive processes for drafting a constitution, holding elections, and ensuring the representation of Syria’s diverse society while allowing for a robust process of transformative justice and giving the loved ones of victims answers as to what befell them are needed. These steps should be detailed and agreed upon with a realistic timeline that ensures these vital components of a successful transition are neither rushed and delivered superficially nor delayed to the point of avoiding their ultimate implementation.
Finally, the White House should press Israel to withdraw its military from the buffer zone and other parts of Syria they have entered. Their presence in Syrian territory increases the risk of friction between the Israeli military and militants operating in Syria and places pressure on the new Syrian leadership to respond when it appears clear that they want to focus on internal matters and avoid hostilities with Israel. Moreover, Turkey must be pressed to respect Syria’s sovereignty and stop fueling conflict with Kurds in the north of the country. These are crucial steps to reduce the risk of further regional conflict, and to protect the nearly 2,000 US troops remaining in Syria, as the Trump administration works to wind down hostilities in line with the President’s stated goals.
It is in the US national security interest to see Syria stable with a successful political transition. The war in Syria has had a destabilizing impact on its neighbors. The absence of a unified government or the persistence of fighting offers conditions that can be exploited by existing and potentially new militant groups. Every effort should be made to ensure Syria is able to make the most of this opportunity for a better future.
End the war in Gaza
Throughout his campaign, President Trump promised to end the war in Gaza, and his team played a critical role in finalizing a ceasefire deal. President Trump is right to prioritize an end to hostilities. The war in Gaza has been destabilizing for the region, and its continuation is adding pressure on US allies throughout the region, whose populations are furious over what is happening in Gaza and blame their governments for being complicit with Israeli actions.
The United States, with its leverage, cannot allow Israel to violate its ceasefire with Hamas as it has repeatedly in Lebanon
Ensuring the ceasefire holds and surging humanitarian aid into Gaza is essential for stabilizing the region and allowing the US to focus on Lebanon and Syria’s political transitions and recovery. As a guarantor of the ceasefires in both Gaza and Lebanon, the US must work to ensure that all parties work through ceasefire mechanisms, rather than engaging in unilateral uses of force that risk restarting hostilities. The United States, with its leverage, cannot allow Israel to violate its ceasefire with Hamas as it has repeatedly in Lebanon.
With a ceasefire now in place, UNRWA has an enormous role to play in receiving and distributing aid and providing relief in Gaza after a harrowing 16 months. As the United States has acknowledged, UNRWA is the only operating organization which can deliver vital services in Gaza and the West Bank. UNRWA’s operations are also vital to stability in Lebanon, Syria, and for US security partners like Jordan, who recently intercepted Iranian missiles heading for Israel. The United States should both resume its funding for UNRWA and press the Israeli government to drop the ban on UNRWA.
While President Trump returns to the White House with a large array of challenges, he also has clear opportunities to stabilize the region and leverage his experience in dealmaking to advance US national security interests and support partners whose progress are central to the stability of the region. Bold proactive engagement that works to end conflicts and deter external actors who are fueling them while providing vital humanitarian and reconstruction funding can help the US avoid repeating the failings of the previous administration that spent the past four years reacting to crises it failed to do enough to prevent or address in advance.
Douglas Christensen is the Advocacy Manager at TIMEP.
Timothy E. Kaldas is the Deputy Director of TIMEP.