ESW 2016 Q4

Quarterly Report: 2016 Q4

04/10/2017 . By TIMEP

The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy’s Egypt Security Watch explores the nature of the security threat that Egypt faces, providing insight and analysis on the state’s response to this threat. In addition to our regular quarterly report, TIMEP has posted four new actor profiles since the release of our last report. Hasam Movement, Revolutionary Punishment, and Liwaa al-Thawra have all been added to the Egypt Security Watch terror group portfolio, and Major General Khaled Shalaby was profiled for his involvement in a number of cases involving torture. This report covers the trends and developments in the fourth quarter of 2016, October to December.

Key findings:
  • The number of reported terror attacks across Egypt dropped to 168 in the fourth quarter of 2016, compared to 209 attacks in the third quarter and 225 in the second quarter.
  • Ninety-two percent of attacks reported throughout Egypt in the fourth quarter were carried out in North Sinai province; 67 of these 155 were claimed by Wilayat Sinai. Thirteen attacks were reported this quarter outside of North Sinai, compared to 12 last quarter and 31 in the second quarter.
  • Officially reported counter-terrorism operations increased in the fourth quarter, with 24 operations reported compared to only five operations last quarter and seven in the second quarter. This represents a 380 percent increase in officially reported counter-terrorism operations compared to the third quarter.
  • The Islamic State in Egypt carried out a high-profile attack on the St. Peter and St. Paul Coptic Orthodox Church in Cairo’s Abbasiya district, killing 29 and injuring more than four dozen. The group promised in the wake of the attack to escalate its war on unbelievers.
  • Wilayat Sinai claimed 31 attacks employing IEDs, representing 46 percent of the group’s claimed activity in the fourth quarter.

As with all of our work at TIMEP, we are committed to furthering policies toward the region that both foster safety and security for its citizens, while recognizing that these must be based on a sincere and comprehensive respect for human rights and the rule of law. We hope that these reports will contribute to a sound understanding of the security situation necessary to inform this policy approach.

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