Over the past four months, the world’s attention has rightfully been centered on Gaza, drawn by the distressing realities unfolding on the ground. The toll on civilian lives, severe blockades, scarcity of essential supplies, and the relentless targeting of civilian infrastructure, residential zones, and camps underscore the gravity of the situation. Capitalizing on the world’s singular focus on Gaza, war criminals like Bashar al-Assad are exploiting the situation as a smokescreen to advance their own agendas. Indeed, the Syrian regime has strategically intensified its assaults on civilians in Idlib since October to perpetuate violence with minimal attention. These attacks, compounded by the unforgiving winter and the somber first anniversary of the region’s catastrophic earthquake, have deepened the anguish for residents, layering misery upon misery.
Between October and mid-November 2023, regime and Russian forces executed 570 attacks, resulting in the deaths of 114 civilians. This calculated exploitation extends beyond the battlefield. Assad is strategically denouncing Israel’s actions not out of moral objection but as a means to assume a false moral high ground and cleanse his tarnished reputation.
Idlib, recognized as the final enclave under the control of opposition fighters within Syria, has witnessed its most severe military escalation in the past four years. This region serves as a residence for 4.5 million individuals, where at least half of the population has experienced displacement at least once since the conflict’s inception. Trapped within these areas, civilians face a harrowing reality—devoid of resources to facilitate relocation, unable to cross into Turkey, and confronted with the threat of persecution should they endeavor to move toward government-held territories. The majority of these inhabitants rely extensively on humanitarian aid to fulfill their basic necessities.
Assad is strategically denouncing Israel’s actions not out of moral objection but as a means to assume a false moral high ground and cleanse his tarnished reputation
In an effort to safeguard civilian lives and forestall an overwhelming increase in the number of refugees into its borders, Turkey brokered an agreement in 2017 with Russia and Iran to designate Idlib as a “de-escalation zone,” aimed to reduce hostilities and promote a ceasefire in the region. However, despite this accord, the Syrian regime persisted in its assaults on the enclave, progressively seizing significant portions of it in subsequent years. In a bid to prevent the regime from capturing the remaining territory, a fresh ceasefire agreement was brokered between Ankara and Moscow on March 5, 2020. Although the ceasefire largely held, the regime has persistently launched frequent offensives against Idlib, subjecting its inhabitants to collective punishment and undermining any prospects of stability for the region’s residents.
Vital and bustling civilian facilities have been intentionally hit, indicating a concerted effort to maximize damage to the infrastructure serving the local inhabitants
Since early October 2023, the sustained military campaign waged against Idlib has specifically zeroed in on civilian zones within the city of Idlib and its neighboring rural districts. While airstrikes have been part of the onslaught, the Syrian regime has heavily relied on ground attacks, employing rocket launchers and artillery weaponry. The Syrian Network for Human Rights has confirmed the deliberate nature of these assaults, strategically targeting densely populated civilian areas situated far from the frontlines. Additionally, vital and bustling civilian facilities have been intentionally hit, indicating a concerted effort to maximize damage to the infrastructure serving the local inhabitants.
The month of October witnessed the most extensive escalation campaign carried out by the Syrian regime and Russia against civilians in northwest Syria in years. Approximately 300 attacks were recorded during that month, as 88 critical civilian facilities were targeted, including 24 schools, 43 healthcare establishments, as well as markets, camps, water infrastructure, and places of worship. The consequence has been tragic, with at least 70 civilians, including 27 children and 14 women, losing their lives. Moreover, over 388 individuals, including 77 children, have been injured. According to the UN, this escalation has led to the displacement of more than 120,000 civilians, forcing them to seek refuge in shelters and camps along the Syrian-Turkish border, abandoning their cities and villages.
While there was a slight reduction in the intensity of attacks during November, the toll on civilians persisted, with over 100 attacks resulting in the death of 15 civilians, including 8 children and 2 women. In December, a total of 118 ground and aerial attacks were carried out, resulting in the loss of 26 civilian lives and leaving 118 others injured. In the first half of January 2024, 52 attacks were recorded, resulting in the death of 7 civilians, including a child and a woman.
This upsurge stands out starkly against previous escalation patterns in Idlib. Past clashes between the regime and opposition forces usually involved skirmishes and shelling that were contained and often accompanied by extensive media coverage. However, these recent hostilities have been marked by widespread and seemingly indiscriminate shelling, receiving minimal media attention from pro-government outlets as they were portrayed as individual incidents rather than a systematic and prolonged military campaign.
Analysts think that the recent escalation is geared toward pressuring opposition forces for the opening of the crucial M4 and M5 highways, vital arteries facilitating international trade for Syria, connecting the country to both Europe and the Arabian Gulf. Though speculative, these assertions carry weight. The regime’s relentless assault on Idlib aligns seamlessly with Assad’s long-standing objective of regaining control over these strategic roads.
Meanwhile, regime officials have strongly condemned Israel’s war on Gaza and beyond. Notably, Assad traveled to Saudi Arabia on November 11 to attend an emergency Arab summit convened to discuss strategies to halt the conflict in Gaza. During sideline meetings with various heads of states, he strongly criticized the ongoing Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, specifically highlighting the deliberate targeting of civilians and hospitals. He stressed the urgent necessity to cease the bombings and safeguard the population, admonishing the West for allowing Israel to persist in these actions while failing to safeguard the Palestinian people.
Aligning with these sentiments, the Syrian foreign minister stressed that the victims in Gaza are not just numbers and called for an end to the killing of civilians. Regime officials also urged the international community to investigate Israel’s reported use of white phosphorus munitions in Gaza and Lebanon in recent months. To help initiate this process, the acting Syrian chargé d’affaires at the UN urged the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons to investigate these ongoing violations of international humanitarian law.
Pro-regime media outlets have strongly echoed and celebrated these statements regarding Gaza. However, this has sparked significant backlash and condemnation, both within Syria and abroad. The criticism stems from the stark contradiction between the Assad regime’s condemnation of the brutal Israeli attacks against Palestinians and its own history of crimes and ongoing violations against Syrians spanning the past 12 years.
People interviewed for this article frequently highlight the glaring parallels between the assaults in Gaza and the regime’s offenses against Syrians, interpreting these statements as an endeavor to diminish its own culpability
Discussions with Syrians, including residents of Idlib, shed light on their perception of the Syrian regime’s recent condemnations of Israeli actions against Palestinians. Many individuals I have engaged with underscore the view that these statements serve as a deliberate distraction from the regime’s extensive history of atrocities. People interviewed for this article frequently highlight the glaring parallels between the assaults in Gaza and the regime’s offenses against Syrians, interpreting these statements as an endeavor to diminish its own culpability.
Extensively documented regime crimes paint a clear picture of its responsibility. These violations encompass tactics of collective punishment, indiscriminate shelling, deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, and the use of internationally banned weapons such as incendiary and cluster munitions, in addition to chemical weapons. The Syrian regime has even used white phosphorus during its recent military campaign against civilian targets in northwest Syria, while simultaneously criticizing Israel for using the same weapons in Gaza.
These criminal practices persisted even as the overall intensity of fighting across the country was reduced. According to the Syrian Civil Defense, in the recent escalation, regime forces employed internationally banned incendiary weapons and cluster munitions, exacerbating the region’s instability and triggering a fresh wave of displacement.
Highlighting these parallels aims not only to set the record straight but also to expose the hypocrisy of Assad and his regime, preventing any attempt to claim a false moral high ground or to cleanse his tarnished reputation.
Perhaps [Idlib’s residents] understand better than most the immense cost of allowing perpetrators to commit crimes without facing consequences
It is crucial to note that Assad’s effort to exploit the ongoing atrocities in Gaza should not undermine or diminish the urgent and rightful calls for their immediate cessation. This important fact has not escaped the notice of Idlib residents, who, despite the numerous risks they face, have actively protested the war on Gaza. Perhaps they understand better than most the immense cost of allowing perpetrators to commit crimes without facing consequences.
Nevertheless, the world has yet to fully comprehend that unchallenged violations in Gaza would only empower regimes elsewhere to replicate such actions. This is not a mere prediction. The unpunished atrocities committed by Russia in Syria have been replicated on a significant scale in Ukraine. War criminals have been allowed to commit atrocities without consequences for far too long.
Dr. Haid Haid is a columnist and a Senior Consulting Research Fellow at the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Program.