As Israel’s military offensive in Lebanon intensifies, hundreds of thousands of civilians are fleeing their homes, turning once-vibrant communities into ghost towns. Official estimates suggest that more than 1.2 million people have been displaced since September 23, marking one of the most severe humanitarian crises Lebanon has experienced in decades. While the majority of those fleeing are Lebanese nationals, a significant number of Syrian refugees residing in Lebanon are also being forced to seek safety elsewhere as the conflict spreads.
For over a decade, 1.5 million Syrians have sought refuge in Lebanon, enduring economic hardship and rising anti-refugee sentiment to avoid the threats they would likely encounter if they returned to Syria. However, with Lebanon’s humanitarian and security conditions deteriorating rapidly, many refugees are left with two perilous options: stay and relive the horrors of war in Lebanon, or return to Syria and face the dangers that drove them to flee in the first place.
Independent and transparent oversight mechanisms are essential to ensure that returning individuals receive adequate protection
According to Lebanese authorities, over 500,000 people have crossed into Syria as of October 25, with Syrians making up nearly 70 percent of these returns. Given the lack of safe alternatives, the Syrian regime’s recently declared willingness to accept returning refugees should be urgently and carefully scrutinized. Independent and transparent oversight mechanisms are essential to ensure that returning individuals receive adequate protection. Without such safeguards, the risks for returnees could be devastating.
Exclusion from essential assistance
While returning to Syria remains perilous for many Syrians in Lebanon, staying in a war-torn environment presents its own severe challenges. Even before the current wave of displacement, Syrians in Lebanon were highly vulnerable as they were subjected to increasingly frequent arbitrary deportations, forced evictions, and escalating violence. The ongoing waves of displacement have worsened conditions for Syrian refugees within Lebanon, with many reporting an inability to access shelters and obtain aid.
The scale and speed of displacement in Lebanon, unseen in recent decades, have created extremely difficult humanitarian conditions in a country already burdened by economic collapse and a polarized political landscape. Although makeshift shelters were quickly established, these facilities reached capacity almost immediately. Rising anti-Syrian sentiment, compounded by overwhelming needs and limited resources, has led to incidents of Syrian refugees being turned away from shelters. Many facilities have effectively become “Lebanese-only” spaces, with Syrians excluded from receiving basic assistance.
Municipalities, particularly in the Bekaa Valley, have warned Syrians in certain camps against hosting newly displaced friends or family, threatening eviction for noncompliance. In some cases, Syrian refugees were evicted to make room for displaced Lebanese families, intensifying the housing crisis for Syrians who have nowhere else to go.
Human rights organizations have raised alarms over the exclusion of Syrians from shelter and aid, noting that tens of thousands have been left without viable options. In response to this dire situation, urgent calls have been made to “lift discriminatory barriers” and grant Syrians equal access to shelter and assistance. However, the apparent ineffectiveness of these appeals has left many Syrian refugees with no good choices. They are forced to decide between two equally dire options: endure increasingly hostile and unstable conditions in Lebanon or cross the border back into Syria, facing the dangers they once fled in a desperate hope for safety for their families.
Double standards for Syrians, even at home
Discrimination against Syrians has persisted even upon their return to their homeland. In response to the increase of Lebanese refugees seeking safety in Syria, the regime quickly enacted measures to ease their entry, including allowing Lebanese citizens to cross the border with any form of official identification. Following widespread criticism, the regime announced a temporary suspension of the requirement that every returning Syrian exchange $100 at the border to bolster the regime’s foreign currency reserves at an exchange rate significantly lower than the black-market rate. Prior to this suspension, the requirement had left many Syrian refugees stranded at the border, unable to enter due to a lack of funds.
Despite the regime’s assurances, discriminatory policies against returning Syrians remain in effect
By the end of September, the regime launched an extensive media campaign to publicize its willingness to support initiatives aiding the return of Syrian refugees. Analysts suggest that this advertised leniency may be driven by the regime’s hopes that an increased return of Syrians could attract financial support, especially from Arab countries urging Damascus to facilitate refugee repatriation.
Despite the regime’s assurances, discriminatory policies against returning Syrians remain in effect. Shelters established by the regime in rural Damascus, Tartus, Latakia, Homs, Hama, and Aleppo have been reserved for Lebanese refugees, leaving many Syrian returnees without adequate shelter. These Syrians are often forced to rely on family support or resort to makeshift accommodations on the streets. Furthermore, aid provisions for Syrian returnees have been reportedly smaller than those allocated to Lebanese refugees, often falling short of meeting even the most basic necessities.
Persistent risks for returning refugees
In addition to discrimination and a lack of housing, Syrians returning home continue to face significant dangers. The majority of these returnees are women and children, with most Syrian men choosing to remain in Lebanon, fearing the risks awaiting them back home, such as the well-documented arbitrary detention, kidnapping, torture, and even killings. Furthermore, tens of thousands of returnees have opted to settle in areas outside regime control to avoid the severe dangers associated with regime-held regions. Notably, these returnees made this decision despite the escalation in attacks on these areas carried out by Turkey in the northeast and by the regime and Russia in the northwest.
Despite the Syrian regime’s publicized efforts to encourage refugee returns, safety concerns remain acute. The Syrian Network for Human Rights has reported numerous violations against returnees, including financial extortion, arbitrary arrests, enforced disappearances, torture, and forced conscription. Between September 23 and October 25, the network recorded the detention of at least 26 returnees, including one woman; one detainee died from torture in a detention center. These incidents highlight the enduring pattern of human rights abuses, casting serious doubt on the regime’s assurances of safe passage and protection for returning Syrians.
As more Syrian refugees in Lebanon reluctantly view returning to Syria as a necessary gamble for their families’ safety, the Syrian regime’s professed commitment to their safety and warm reception must be rigorously scrutinized. To prevent returnees from confronting their worst fears without support, robust and independent mechanisms must be established to monitor and protect them. Without such safeguards, the risks for returning refugees remain severe. The risk of further persecution remains high. The international community must remain vigilant in holding the Syrian regime accountable for the safety and rights of those who are forced to return.
Dr. Haid Haid is a columnist and a Senior Consulting Research Fellow at the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Program.