In footage that has now become viral, on May 13, 2025, the world watched as Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) placed his hand over his heart in a sign of gratitude and then slowly rose to give a standing ovation, bringing the whole audience of the Saudi-US Investment Forum to their feet as they followed his lead. Such was the unforgettable scene that followed United States President Donald Trump’s bombshell announcement of a “cessation of sanctions against Syria to give them a chance at greatness.”
Trump spoke from Riyadh as part of his trip, with stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). His selection of the Gulf as the destination for the first major international trip of his second term as president and the content of his remarks together provide a critical window into US foreign policy in the Middle East and beyond. Here are three key areas that are worth continuing to monitor and reflect on.
“The Arabian way”
In a moment that paralleled former US President Barack Obama’s 2009 Cairo speech to signal the beginning of a new relationship with the Middle East following the war in Iraq, Trump congratulated regional leaders on the “the birth of a modern Middle East,” telling them that they achieved “a modern miracle the Arabian way.” In doing so, he critiqued those he described as nation-builders “intervening in complex societies that they did not…understand themselves.” Instead, he said that the Gulf’s success had been “brought [about] by the people of the region themselves—the people that are right here, the people [who] have lived here all their lives, developing [their] own sovereign countries, pursuing [their] own unique visions and charting [their] own destinies in [their] own way.”
Affirming their sovereignty, Trump tells US allies that they should not expect neoconservative approaches and democracy promotion efforts to color their relationship
It’s likely that Trump’s message is not solely meant for his audience in the Middle East, but also for his own Republican Party at home over which he has exerted increasing ideological influence in recent years. Through his words, he foreshadows a US foreign policy that will much more likely be defined by the primacy of US interests (at least as he understands them), deal-making and transactions, and restraint, rather than a more-involved, “deep engagement” which upholds the “global liberal order.” Whether intentional or not, his message appears to support long-standing regional arguments that human rights are not universal, but rather, context-specific; and that democracy is not the only model for success—messages that are being sent as US soft power tools are cut and funding for civil society and independent media are slashed. Affirming their sovereignty, Trump tells US allies that they should not expect neoconservative approaches and democracy promotion efforts to color their relationship. His words, which offer a rejection of US interventionism, may in fact resonate with certain audiences in the Middle East who have seen the tangible harm caused by particular US engagements in the region. Time will tell whether these words continue to match US action in practice. In the meantime, observers are likely to expect waning US leadership in the promotion of rights and in the protection of an international rules-based order.
The Gulf as a conduit
If there were any doubts before about the growing role of the Gulf, but particularly Saudi Arabia, as a conduit for US foreign policy in the Middle East, Trump’s speech would have shattered them. During his first administration, he began building relationships with the Gulf largely centered around investment opportunities and the Abraham Accords. As we delve deeper into his second term, these two elements are further complemented by a growing trust in Gulf states to conduct critical mediation within the Middle East and outside of it and to serve as an indigenous model of governance that can be exported. On the latter, Trump could not have been more clear when announcing the cessation of sanctions on Syria: “Good luck Syria, show us something very special like they’ve done in Saudi.” On the former, Saudi Arabia has hosted US talks with Russia and Ukraine; and Qatar has, of course, continued to host talks to bring an end to the war on Gaza. Both Qatar and the UAE have also mediated the release of detained Americans in various locations abroad.
In addition to explicitly recognizing the critical role that MBS played in convincing Trump to lift sanctions on Syria—a policy position that even some of Trump’s closest advisors and officials were not ready to embrace—Trump praised Gulf leadership throughout his speech, highlighted the importance of cooperation between the Gulf states, and committed to collaborating with them “to unify against the few agents of chaos and terror that are left and that are holding hostage the dreams of millions and millions of great people,” referring primarily to the regime in Iran. Trump then proceeds to lay out, in great detail, the role of Iran in places like Lebanon and Syria, stating: “If only the Iranian regime had focused on building their nation up instead of tearing the region down.”
As regional influence becomes further centralized, it’s no surprise that Trump is counting on the Gulf. It’s less clear what this will mean for Sudan, which has noticeably been absent from the conversation, even though the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are key backers of the belligerents. For Iran and Israel, the months to come will be particularly consequential. Trump offers a fascinating takeaway in his speech: “I don’t believe in permanent enemies.” He describes the ceasefire with the Houthis as an example of his ability to reach agreements with those he disagrees with; and expresses an openness to striking a deal with Iran if it casts aside its nuclear ambitions, otherwise promising maximum pressure and threatening to drive Iranian exports to zero. Though these threats may be comforting in part to Israel, the deal with the Houthis and the absence of Israel on the travel itinerary are certainly not nothing.
Personal relationships matter
Much has been written about the importance of personal relationships to the deals made during the first Trump administration and to his foreign policy at-large. If Tuesday’s speech is any indication, this approach is only set to continue.
Throughout the speech, Trump made numerous comments expressing his admiration for the Gulf’s development model, praising MBS for turning his country into a successful business hub despite criticism and recognizing other leaders for the “remarkable transformations” in cities like Dubai and Doha. Beyond lavish praise, Trump’s remarks confirm a much more important takeaway: that his admiration for particular individuals also translates into policy influence. At numerous points in the speech, Trump said of MBS: “I like him too much…that’s why we give him so much,” and again: “Oh what I do for the Crown Prince,” as he described not only the cessation of sanctions, but the resumption of increasingly normalized relations with Syria ahead of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani and of his own 33-minute sit-down with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Beyond lavish praise, Trump’s remarks confirm a much more important takeaway: that his admiration for particular individuals also translates into policy influence
Though certainly the star of Trump’s speech by a long-shot, MBS was not the only individual recognized in the remarks. When speaking of Lebanon, which received relatively significant attention for the first time at the presidential level, Trump went on at-length about his pick for US ambassador to the country, Michel Issa. He shared that he had warned Issa, who he described as a friend, of the danger of the post and that Issa had told him: “I was born there. I’m Lebanese. I love that country…If I’m injured or die, I’m dying for a country I love.” Only after introducing listeners to Issa and highlighting their friendship, does Trump then explain how this will be reflected in US policy: “In Lebanon…a new president and prime minister have brought the first real chance in decades for a more productive partnership with the United States.” Speaking of economic development and prospects for peace, Trump again centers on the personal: “We’re going to work with their new ambassador and see if we can really help them out.” Much like how he appoints and empowers his foreign policy personnel, US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff being a prime example, it’s clear that Trump will continue to exercise policy and identify priorities through those he trusts most.
In a region as dynamic as the Middle East, developments are quick to unfold and alliances are never set in stone. Yet as Trump heads back home following the conclusion of his first foreign trip on May 16, observers and analysts will have much to watch out for—the continued casting away of neoconservatism approaches within the Trump camp; the growing importance of the Gulf not only as a leader in the Middle East, but on the global stage; and the fact that across it all, policy truly is people.
Mai El-Sadany is the Executive Director at TIMEP.